Although such a difference is not present between the OPEC and IEA figures in the near term, these projections diverge in the later part of this decade and remain separated throughout the remainder of the projection period. The difference with EIA’s figures is largely a result of EIA’s significant upward revision to its estimates since AEO 2013, as discussed. In contrast, OPEC’s projections for the United States are significantly lower than those from the other organizations. 4 EIA states that, “after accounting for infrastructure constraints and general development patterns, oil and natural gas resources in ?sweet spots’ are developed earlier than lower quality resources, based on net present value.” 5 This intensified pace of oil-directed drilling in the near term, combined with ongoing technological advancements and continued fast growth in tight oil production, combine to yield the changes between AEO 2013 and AEO 2014 seen below. In the latest release, EIA estimated the ultimate recovery of tight oil using county-level data. 3ĮIA’s expectations regarding domestic liquids production increased significantly between AEO 2013 and AEO 2014.
crude oil production will come close to the historical high set in 1970. petroleum and other liquids production over the next decade, 2 and in fact, its projections show that ? by 2016 ? U.S. EIA anticipates continued strong growth in U.S. 1 Although these organizations’ projections are generally in agreement regarding the course of oil production in the OECD Americas through the year 2035, the OPEC figures show some noticeable deviations, and particularly for the United States and Canada.Īs seen in the graph below, EIA’s estimates for the United States ? and therefore for OECD Americas ? are the most optimistic of those presented. This blog post compares EIA’s most recent projections ? for the United States, Canada, and Mexico/Chile (the OECD countries in the Americas) ? against projections from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2013 (IEA WEO 2013) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ 2013 World Oil Outlook (OPEC 2013 WOO). Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2014 Early Release. These developments, and how they modify expectations for the future, are reflected in several major modeling studies, including the U.S. Over the past several years, however, the tight oil boom in the United States, along with the development of Canada’s oil sands, has reversed that trend ? increasing the production outlook not only for the United States, but for North America generally. crude oil production was steadily declining, after reaching a historical high of 9.6 million barrels per day (MBD) in 1970. Give Search Keywords Submit Policy Areasįor much of the four decades between 19, U.S.
0 kommentar(er)
